As Retail observers, we would be remiss if we did not discuss the retail ramifications from the executive orders that have been issued in the past eleven days. The consensus seems that the fashion and luxury sectors will feel pain first.

1) As reported in Monday’s Business of Fashion, while very little has been said publicly, the immigration ban has forced some to come to grips with the new reality.

“The fashion industry has always been a reflection of what America is all about… inclusion and diversity, ” wrote designer and CFDA chairwoman Diane von Furstenberg via email. “It will continue to stand by these standards. I am personally horrified to see what is going on. “

That’s the emotional side of the issue, but there’s quite a pragmatic one as well. In the same article:

“Retail sales, which rely on the purchasing power of high-net worth tourists from the Middle East, could also suffer if people from across the region, wary of the new rules, stay away. “

2) Luxury Daily worries at the impact on luxury sales when a 20% tax is placed on imported product.

“Consumers care about the after-tax price, not the before-tax price, ” said Steve Allen, associate dean for Graduate Programs and Research, including the Global Luxury Management program, at NC State Poole College of Management. “This means that any tax is an additional expense that sellers have to cover, an expense that will have to be passed on to consumers.

“So expect prices of imported luxury goods to jump and sales to drop, ” he said. “Consumers and retailers beware. “

3) There is fear and concern down where I live, in Miami. Much of our retail sales come from the tourist industry. In fact, Matt Whitman Lazenby, the CEO of Bal Harbour Shops told me about eighteen months ago that 80% of the mall’s sales are generated by tourists. Given that this mall has the highest sales per square foot of any mall in the US, this is not inconsequential.

A new design district in midtown Miami also boasts some of the most famous names in fashion, From Tom Ford, to Fendi, to Lanvin. The area is still new. Can it survive the pummeling the luxury market will potentially take?

4) It’s easy to say, eh…the heck with those high-end consumers, but sooner or later, the subject of imports bound for mass merchandising stores like Target and Walmart is bound to come up. I’ve been trying to reach executives at both companies for comment since before the inauguration.

5) So far, no comment has been forthcoming (although to be fair, I’ve been playing phone tag with Walmart’s VP of communications for 3 weeks).

I simply can’t see how the low end of the market can cope with a 20% price increase, and I can’t see mammoth chains like Walmart spinning on a dime to source product from the US.

6) I would also be remiss if I didn’t speak about the grass roots movement in Mexico to boycott US products. With an already imbalanced trade ratio, any significant boycott will hurt US retailers and manufacturers.

The bottom line message for retailers is it is a time for real caution. Whatever your political bent, it’s important to recognize that we’ve gotten ourselves into a tricky situation. We’re a nation built on consumption, and retailers’ agenda remains as it always was: look for the lowest cost sourcing you can. I certainly have loudly beseeched the industry to “make more stuff here ” over the years but these things simply don’t happen overnight. They require thought, just like any other roll-out – from technology to policies. A thoughtful, step-wise approach is always best. So far, it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

Hold onto your wallets. It’s going to be a wild ride.