Target Continues Repositioning For Growth: Lessons Learned
I had the opportunity to sit in on Target’s earning’s call last week, and the company provided a great infographic in advance that highlights the high points better than I could. But there’s more to tell than just the raw numbers.
What’s most apparent to me is the company’s desire to separate itself from Walmart. They may share similar store footprints, but the company wants comparisons to end there. Target focuses on its signature categories which it defines as style, baby, kids and wellness. These areas are not part of CEO Brian Cornell’s core strengths, but under his leadership they are coming back from the droopy realm of commodity and being embraced by customers. The refreshed marketing message says it all…moving away from simply being the low cost provider to become a quality leader across the board. And CEO Brian Cornell is using his grocery expertise to help bring unique products and subcategories like craft beer into the company’s merchandise mix.
Quality comes at a price, and that price was gross margin percent. Target’s sales have risen even as its gross margin fell slightly. The company attributed this to investments in quality. Personally, I think quality improvements are a good decision. While much as been written about fast fashion and the notion that young consumers don’t care all that much about quality, there is a minimum standard that moves a product from commodity to cool. That’s the sweet spot Target is shooting for.
Lesson learned? Sometimes you have to invest in merchandising to get the exact value proposition your customers expect. And there really is a floor at which your product is no longer cool. Target is rising up. We just hope it doesn’t try to overreach and go too far.
Next, the company made a somewhat ironic statement. Digital sales have risen only 20% over the past quarter, less than the 30% the company hoped for. You know there’s some confusion in the market when reporters start calling and asking why Target’s online sales were so poor. Since the industry is running at 15.1% year over year eCommerce growth (according to the U.S. Census Bureau), it’s hard to call Target a laggard.
However, one thing I’ve learned over the past few months is that the “average ” eCommerce sales number is a bit like the old “one foot in a bucket of ice, one foot in a bucket of boiling water, but on average you’re warm ” joke. And the numbers are completely counter-intuitive. It turns out that the richer the demographic, the higher the percentage of eCommerce sales. In other words, the “idle rich ” don’t really exist anymore. It’s more like the “time-starved upper-middle class ” who can’t take the time to do a lot of in-store browsing or waiting in line.
Consider this: Neiman-Marcus reports 26% of its revenue is generated from digital sales. Nordstrom reports 19%. Macy’s 8%, and Target and Walmart bring up the far rear at 3% of total company sales.
In the past, it has been facile to say that Walmart, in particular, has been losing customers to Amazon.com, but the aggregate numbers don’t exactly bear that out. I would argue that the numbers actually say Walmart’s customers are less likely to shop online, period. Ditto, until now, with Target’s core customers. Walmart has been losing sales to Dollar stores. Has Target lost sales to Amazon? Well, many of its customers just deserted the chain, and left for parts unknown. Did some go to Amazon? Probably. But was Amazon the problem? Not particularly.
Lesson learned? Target fell far too low into commodity territory and the majority of its upscale clientele went elsewhere. Not to Amazon, necessarily…just elsewhere. I believe Target is using its eCommerce growth partly as a canary in the coal mine for gauging shifts in its customer demographic. The fast it sees its eCommerce sales rising, the more likely future customer data analysis will show that demographic is rising.
This is a big part of the omni-channel customer experience. It’s not just about cool apps that help you save money. It’s about the fluidity that the time-starved shopper needs to make her life more convenient.
There’s a lot more that could be said, but the bottom line is this: Target has set its sights back in the world of reasonably-priced chic, useful, healthy, sometimes unique products. It wants to separate itself from Walmart and not worry about Dollar stores eating into its market baskets.
So far, the company is receiving high marks all around, in what is turning out to be a surprisingly difficult retail market. Now it’s time to see how the customer reacts during the all-important holiday season.
Let the games begin.