Next week is RSR’s fourth birthday. It’s amazing how time flies. As we all generally do around birthdays and anniversaries, I took a look back, to see what we were talking about when we launched Retail Paradox (which technically launched on August 7, 2007, a month and a half after we started the company). It seems we’ve managed to catch the early scent of a fair number of trends over these past four years. So if you’ll indulge me, I’ll take you on a short tour of topics that we covered at the beginning and where they stand today. Hopefully, you’ll find this an interesting little ride.

In our very first issue we covered four topics: Walmart’s attempts to become kinder and gentler, the TJX data breach, on-line grocery and the possibility that its time might have finally come, and the tsunami of tainted products and food that was coming out of China at that time. I exhorted retailers to trust but verify the quality of products they were selling under their brand names, as product recalls were likely to create a consumer backlash against China and the retailers themselves.

Fast-forward to today: the TJX data breach may have been massive, but the customer didn’t care. Over the following months we reported how customers continued to shop at the chain, not thinking twice about handing over their credit cards. We’ll cover Walmart in a little more detail further down. And the product quality drama of the week is a new and particularly toxic strain of e-Coli sickening Europeans that seems to have originated in alfalfa sprouts, although as of this writing, no one is really sure. So quality remains an issue, and our ability to identify the source of problems appears to be weaker, not stronger. On-line grocery remains a holy grail, although Amazon has made some inroads.

In our second issue Nikki talked about challenges associated with buy on-line, pick-up in store, I spent some time ruminating on whether we should change retail success metrics (and decided ‘not yet’), Brian talked about tech providers like Microsoft buying the soon-to-be-vacated VHF bandwidth when TV would switch over to digital airwaves in 2009, and Steve pondered whether or not Walmart could really challenge iTunes in the realm of digital downloads.

Today we know that comparable store/channel sales still rule, buy on-line, pick up in store is the expectation, 4G bandwidth is sweeping the landscape, and as far as I can tell, the unused VHF spectrum has been picked up by cordless phones (I can’t swear to this one). And iTunes…well, it just marches on.

The next issue was notable because it coincided with the release of the iPhone. Nikki asked “What does the iPhone Mean for On-line Shopping? “ I’m going to quote from it here because Ms. Baird nailed it:

Just as retailers are starting to get their arms around what it means to operate both an online and a store channel, technology comes along and changes the game: smart phones. While smart phone penetration is still relatively small, there is no doubt that the mobile web adds yet another channel for the retailer to consider in the portfolio. While the mobile phone may never be as stand-alone as the other two channels, mobile’s biggest opportunity for retailers is to serve as the connecting point between the online world and the physical world. It is as much a disruptor as online commerce was to traditional store retailing. “

Four years later, we know that the smart phone has indeed been disruptive. To EVERYTHING. Its penetration is no longer relatively small, and it threatens the very future of stores as we know them.

The fourth issue contained what for me, was a surprising article BY me, about Walmart. Apparently, all the way back then there was some talk that Walmart was losing its IT mojo and making what I characterized as a lot of rookie mistakes. Sales were starting to slump, the poor results of its original RFID initiative were becoming apparent, and the company had made some serious PR miscues that the media jumped on, including eliminating any customer service phone numbers from its web site.

Just today, when I logged on to my mostly moribund AOL account, I found a new article titled, Walton Family Faces a Tough Decision about Walmart’s CEO. After the company posted eight consecutive quarters of negative comparable store sales trends and modest gains in earnings, the media has begun the Mike Duke deathwatch.

I don’t know Mr. Duke, nor do I pretend to know whether or not he’s doing a good job. I do believe Walmart is mostly suffering the fate of all companies — it has saturated its target market. The company is exceedingly good at what it does. But no market is infinite, and any attempts to grab a few extra shekels from its low-income and financially-stressed customer base have been rebuffed. Attempts to go up-market and attract a higher-end customer were stymied by reputation and websites like www.peopleofwalmart.com. It’s nothing personal. The retail graveyard is filled with cadavers who thought if they just targeted a slightly higher end customer, they could sell slightly more expensive products and earn a few more gross margin dollars from each sale. It’s a strategy that rarely, if ever works. Today, the company is noodling with smaller footprint stores for the urban market. If asked, I would reply, “You’re exceedingly good at moving tonnage around. I am not sure you’ll be quite as good at moving LTL shipments into narrow streets in city neighborhoods. “ There’s some expertise that must be learned, not bought.

As I continued looking through, I realized we’ve covered some very important matters over these past four years. Walmart (which is an eyeball magnet); cross-channel, multi-channel, omni-channel, every channel; data security; IT Alignment (which runs a bit like a broken record — Line of Business execs believe IT leaders don’t understand the business, and IT leaders believe it’s time for Business leaders to stop playing dumb about IT), and the thunderous impact of the smart phone. I’m proud of our body of work, and hope it’s given you some insight and enjoyment.

Next week, it’s time to take a look ahead. We have some interesting announcements to make, we’ll take a look at the current state of the store and whatever else seems new and timely. We hope to keep your attention. We know you don’t have a lot of time and but you do have many different reading choices. Our goal is to continue to be pragmatic, relevant and more than a little entertaining. Let us know how we’re doing.