A couple of weeks ago I wrote a piece on my Forbes blog about mobile payment adoption, or lack thereof in the US. Specifically, I highlighted some data that was served up to me by Balance Innovations, who’d done a survey of college students. Even though as a cash management solution, the results were potentially good news for them, they were really surprised by the results.

Balance Innovations conducted a study of consumers in the United States via 210 Analytics, LLC. They polled 2,503 college students April 8-13, 2014. They asked: “If widely available, would you use your mobile phone over credit/debit cards to make in-store payments? ” The results? Only 16 percent reported they would us mobile payments all the time, 42 percent said they would use it somewhat more, depending on the retailer or purchase, and fully 28 percent said they would not make more mobile payments at all. Those results certainly don’t bode well for the mobile payment industry. “Somewhat ” is not a ringing endorsement.

Separately, RSR conducted a study during the 2013 holiday season asking a similar question: “In five years, how do you think you will pay for items when you shop? ” Respondents were invited to check all types of payment that apply. Only 22.1% of 190 US respondents between the ages of 18-29 selected mobile payments as one of their choices. That was actually slightly less than the overall US average (1,252 respondents) of 23.7%.

The story changes significantly when we look at different geographies. Our study also included approximately 1,000 respondents each from Canada, the UK, Australia, Brazil, Germany, Russia and Japan. While the UK, Canada and Australia responses mimicked the US, and Japan reported very little interest at 12%, Brazil, Germany and Russia showed the most interest, with 59, 42 and 48 percent responding that they expected to use mobile payments.

I’ve been questioned about the Japan numbers. The questions tend to be along the lines of: “Aren’t all the vending machines NFC-enabled? After all, that’s what we read all about in the media. ” Again, anecdotally, I’m hearing that just because they built it, it doesn’t mean consumers have come. Having not been there myself, I can’t comment on it. I just have the data in hand.

RSR partner Brian Kilcourse is fond of saying that to be adopted, a technology has to be easier to use than it is to ignore. Do mobile payment technologies meet that criterion?

In the case of Square the answer is easy – it is way easier to use it than to ignore it, no matter how old you are. For a shopper like me, the opportunity to avoid carrying lots of cash is great. I know I enjoy supporting local businesses, but I rarely carry much cash. Square gives me the ability to buy on impulse wherever I might be.

Starbucks has had success with its mobile payment app which is tied to its loyalty program. Consumers like it. But here’s the thing about Starbucks’ mobile payment app. As FierceRetail’s new Editor (and fellow Forbes contributor) Laura Heller pointed out in an insightful comment, Starbucks is a pre-paid program. To do Ms. Heller full justice, I’m including her full remarks here:

“I’m starting to believe the disconnect isn’t one between mobile and credit/debit but rather between cash and credit. My opinion is purely anecdotal, but we’re talking about a generation that is credit averse. They are carrying a ton of student debt (and pissed off about it), came of age during the recession and consider credit cards bad. They think that debit is cash. A card is swiped and then prompts cash to be deducted from a bank account like an ATM withdrawal, but the card part doesn’t register. Try to tell them it’s not the same as using paper money (as I did following the Target security breach) and you’ll get blank stares.

Starbucks uses a prepaid system for mobile payments. It is quite clearly cash. “

Anecdotal or otherwise, the observation is brilliant, I think.

So it appears that all the hoopla aside, in-store mobile payments are not going to be a defining trend, regardless of age. Personally, I’m really rooting for technologies like Square – I am so cash-adverse that it’s hard to even buy a taco from a food truck if they don’t take credit cards of dome sort. It’s hard for me to change my ways. But then, I’m not a Millennial. Still, apparently, they’re not all that keen to change their ways either. In the US at least, mobile payments are just not a happening thing.