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Malls Still Matter: Here’s Why

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I wrote this story for Forbes.com about a day before a serious cold snap came to South Florida. While it pales in comparison to the “bomb cyclone ” that hit the Northeast, it brought the value of malls in tourist-type areas into sharp relief. Who is going to hit the beach when it’s 41 degrees? Or even visit a tropical garden? Nope… this is a job for – the mall! And the malls can serve other functions as well in non-touristy areas.

Here is the piece as posted in Forbes last week.

For the past ten months, we have been browbeaten with stories about the “Retail Apocalypse ” in all its variations. One variant cites “the death of malls. “

As recently as December 12, CNN Money, usually a reliable source, published this bit of click bait: “America’s Malls Are Rotting Away. ” Subtitle? “The worst is yet to come for America’s shopping malls. ” We clearly didn’t get the memo in Miami, and many other cities also report revitalized malls. In fact, in the month of November, U.S. retail brick and mortar sales were up 4% year-over-year…a healthy increase. I suspect the final holiday season numbers will be even higher.

But that begs the question: what is a healthy mall supposed to look like? What is the mall operator’s responsibility, and what’s the responsibility of the retailers?

Quite simply, it is up to the mall operator to draw foot traffic into the mall, and give retailers within it an opportunity to take advantage of that foot traffic. How they bring in that foot traffic is generally up to them. Over the past decade or two, mall operators have become dependent on “anchor stores, ” typically department stores, to drive that foot traffic. That worked well when department stores were the “best ” retail draw, but department stores are one retail sector that really does have some troubles in front of it (despite having a very good holiday season in 2017).

What happens to a mall when department stores don’t draw traffic? Quite simply, mall operators have to find different ways to engage consumers.

In today’s environment, that means “experience. ” Not food courts, but food halls, which are the next big thing. Not just piano music, but real attractions. And that brings me to the Miami story.

Aventura Mall is already (according to Wikipedia) the second largest mall in the country, even besting Minneapolis’s Mall of America. Having seen both, this is a little hard to believe, but I’ll accept it. Previously, it was the third largest mall in the country. The mall has recently completed the first phase of an eventual 315,000 square foot expansion: the installation of a 93 foot high slide at the entry to the mall. Reports from my not-teenaged friends are that the slide is a blast.

The former Sears store has been torn down as prelude to something new as well (brought to you by Seritage, real estate owner of the property). Whatever it becomes, it will likely be a much better draw than the previous tenant, an aging, dying retailer.

Then there are the Bal Harbour Shops. Bal Harbour already has the highest sales per square foot in the United States (Aventura Mall comes in sixth). I’ve talked with their senior management before, and they tell me that 85% of their business comes from tourists.

If you’ve ever been in the mall, you know that it’s not typical at all. It’s gorgeous, actually…and whether or not you can afford to shop their high-end stores, you can certainly afford to eat in their very good restaurants.

Despite threats from upstarts like the Design District, Bal Harbour Shops is undergoing a $400 million expansion, anchored by a 53,000 square foot Barneys New York. Barney’s brings with it “Freds at Barneys New York, ” a restaurant known for its “European-inspired and contemporary American cuisine. “

In fact, one would think with all the retail mall activity in Miami, this would be the end of expansion. It’s not. There’s a proposed new mall out in western Miami Dade, called “American Dream ” (proposed by the Mall of America operators), that is expected to cover 200 acres and include a ski slope (?!), submarine rides and a Legoland.

Obviously not all malls are high-end, and some operators are working to find new kinds of experiences for Everyman. Some focus on flea markets, others on local entertainment, and even more look to unique kinds of pop-up shops to draw people in their doors. Still others are opting for mixed-use environments, where people can live, work, shop and play. These seem to be up and coming in secondary markets.

This is the very long way around saying again that the health of the American Mall is greatly dependent on the creativity of the mall operator (and of course, location, location and location). Many got lazy as they were carried by anchor stores. Now, it’s time to bring back the kinds of experiences that brought the world singers like Tiffany and Debbie Gibson in the 80’s (whether that makes you groan or not!), and had consumers bringing beach chairs into Mid-western malls to listen to other kinds of concerts and other entertainment.

Fellow Forbes contributor Pam Danziger has already coined the term “Retail Renaissance. ” If she hadn’t, I would have. That’s what I see coming in 2018. The race to the bottom is over and has been replaced by the race for consumer hearts and minds. Get those, and the dollars will follow. Holiday 2017 was a great start. Absent natural or political disasters, I expect an excellent retail year in 2018 across the board. Truth be told, 2017 really was pretty darned good as well.


Newsletter Articles January 8, 2018
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