There were several bits of news recently that, although disconnected in their subject matter, had one thing in common: some (perhaps) early indicators that the current mobile technology craze has “jumped the shark “. I’m not sure everyone will agree (especially those who make their livings selling all the latest-and-greatest), but it does seems to me that the wave of wild-eyed enthusiasm we’ve all seen (if not felt) since the advent of smart mobile techs in 2007 with the introduction of the first iPhone is waning (just a little). It may just be that when it comes to the consumerization of technology, the general public has unwittingly adopted a corporate behavioral pattern called “the six phases of big projects ” (IT people will instantly recognize this):

1. Enthusiasm,
   
2. Disillusionment,
   
3. Panic and hysteria,
   
4. Search for the guilty,
   
5. Punishment of the innocent, and
   
6. Praise and honor for the nonparticipants. 

Let’s take a look at the tea leaves, and see if you agree:

Women in Tech (Not!)

There has been a lot of hoopla, especially in the San Francisco area (a nexus of the current mobile tech boom) that women are disproportionately under-represented in systems and programming jobs. That isn’t news when it comes to the last 60 years of business computing, but it seems to be getting worse. Ironically, in a book entitled “The Computer Boys Take Over, ” historian Nathan Ensmenge revealed that the first programmers were mostly women. The reason? According to Ensmenge, programming was originally thought to be a low-skilled clerical task. By the 1960’s, computer programming was enough of a new field of employment that women leaders saw an opportunity to get past any “glass ceiling ” before one had a chance to develop. But even then, there was a tendency to try to feminize the discipline to somehow make it more attractive to women. Even Captain Grace Hopper, the “mother ” of COBOL, tried that tactic, saying that “programming was ‘just like planning a dinner. You have to plan ahead and schedule everything so that it’s ready when you need it… women are naturals at computer programming.’ “

Nowadays, computer people are thought to be young, mobile, single, socially inept, and mostly male. In a 2013 report, the U.S. Census Bureau noted that “women’s representation in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) occupations has increased since the 1970s, but they remain significantly underrepresented in engineering and computer occupations, occupations that make up more than 80 percent of all STEM employment. Women’s representation in computer occupations has declined since the 1990s. “

I saw this first hand at a conference in San Francisco earlier this year called “Apps World “. To make a long story short, I thought I was visiting the world’s biggest dorm room rather than a conference. Predictably, the place was filled with young adult males, and there I was, an aging (male) geek, giving the young turks a look at themselves in 30 years. But I didn’t see a lot of women. That’s just the truth of it.

Companies such as Google and Facebook have recently made pledges to bridge the gender divide in tech. But attempts are still being made to somehow feminize STEM to make it more attractive to women college candidates, even though it may be having the opposite effect: “To start, there were the pitches from college engineering programs in curly purple typeface accented by flowery images. (Seventeen year old high school senior Abby Wheat) started to notice that many websites for budding female engineers are pink. Then there was the flyer for an after-school program hanging in a hallway of her high school. Printed on purple polka-dot paper, it read, ‘Are you a tech girl? Are you a web diva?’ ‘It seems so degrading,’ Wheat said. ‘If you’re a girl interested in building websites, you’re a web diva. If you’re a boy, you’re a web developer.’ ” ( “How Not To Attract Women To Coding: Make Tech Pink “, Kristen V. Brown, SF Chronicle, July 8, 2014)

So what does this have to do with signs of tech disillusionment? The answer might be found in a 2013 study conducted by professional social website LinkedIn. The study found that while 39% of women defined success as finding the balance between work and personal life in a similar study 10 years ago, that number grew to 63% in 2013. In other words, one big piece of the population isn’t willing to sacrifice “having a life ” for a career in tech.

Geolocation Privacy Concerns

There is a tremendous amount of angst in the U.S. and Europe about privacy. This could all be an outgrowth of “the Snowdon effect “, but whatever the reason, consumer and citizen-level concerns might put a real damper on efforts to take advantage of all the things that mobile could do to help service providers (especially retailers) bridge the gap between the digital and the physical shopping experiences. Companies that implemented geo-location tracking may have had the best intentions in the world, but the public is finding out just what a two-edged sword it is.

In addition to the well-publicized reactions to seemingly innocuous shopper tracking tests at Nordstrom and others, geo-tracking generally is getting damned by faint praise. For example, in article in the NY Times (5/04/14) reported that “in San Diego, a construction worker who said his iPhone had been stolen at a reggae concert chased the pilferer and wound up in a fistfight on the beach that a police officer had to break up. A New Jersey man ended up in custody himself after he used GPS technology to track his lost iPhone and attacked the wrong man, mistaking him for the thief…. Cmdr. Andrew Smith, a spokesman for the Los Angeles Police Department is concerned about this trend. He says ‘It’s just a phone — it’s not worth losing your life over. Let police officers take care of it. We have backup, guns, radio, jackets — all that stuff civilians don’t have.’ “

Implications to “tech disillusionment “? Tech can do more than people want it to do. And once the public is paying attention, all bets are off as to the outcomes.

Forget Me

This story has been hit pretty hard by analysts, pundits, and Facebook alarmists everywhere, so I’ll just mention it: the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Google has to offer a consumer-activated provision to “forget ” individuals’ histories after one year. Remember that this is a European court ruling, not affecting the U.S. But a French startup called (you guessed it) forget.me reported in June that “a third (33%) of its digital visitors in the first week of operation came from the U.S. The next largest single geographical group was France, with 7% of visitors… followed by Germany and the U.K. (tied on 6% apiece). “

You get the picture. While Google is the target of the court ruling, the interest from the U.S. underlines just how concerned people are getting about the power of technology in their lives.

Hitting Back

Finally, let’s consider the plight of authors and their publishers. Another story recently in the SF Chronicle reported on a growing dispute between Amazon.com and some publishers. Apparently, none other than comedian Stephen Colbert threw down the gauntlet, when he “…talk (ed) on his Comedy Central show with award-winning writer Sherman Alexie about the heated contractual dispute between online retailer Amazon and her publisher, Hachette, which is also the talk show host’s publisher. Colbert held up Lepucki’s book, ‘California,’ and said, ‘Here’s the deal. You can’t preorder it because of the game they’re playing, but you can order it … through my website. We are going to prove I can sell more books than Amazon.’.

Subsequently, on July 8^th, the Oregonian reported that “Edan Lepucki’s debut novel wasn’t supposed to be a bestseller. According to The New York Times, her publisher (Machete) only planned to print 12,000 copies. But last week, about 9,000 copies of ‘California’ went through the Powell’s Books warehouse alone, scheduled for delivery Tuesday, the book’s release day… after fellow Hachette authors Sherman Alexie and Stephen Colbert plugged the book and the store on Colbert’s show.’ “

While it may be too early to conclude that “fighting back ” against Big-Digital is in vogue, this example does indicate that consumers are awake and alert, and watching with growing concern, the ability of entities like governments and corporations to consolidate a huge amount of power by virtue of their ability to capture and use huge amounts of personal information.

Much Ado about Nothing?

The irony of these events is that they so closely mimic the same cycle of disillusionment that corporations have experienced whenever they have implemented new technologies. But we can suppose that corporations also provide the clues to what happens next: sober rationalization of the “use case ” for technology. It feels like we’re headed that way as a society when it comes to consumer techs. Stay tuned!