As I write this, we are six days from Amazon’s second annual Prime Day. That means you will be reading this on the day itself. I know other retailers are following Amazon down this road, but I urge caution. I’m not sure if the road is even consistent with Amazon’s long-term strategic needs.

It seems retailers are recognizing that the one-note song of “The lowest prices: really!! ” isn’t very sticky, and it’s not enough of a story over the long haul.

Consider the following:

There have been a lot of mutterings in the media about Amazon walking away from low price leadership. Walmart has abandoned price matching, except as part of their loyalty program (why does that seem backwards to me?). I have found many instances of significantly lower prices on sites that are not Amazon or Walmart and companies like Pure Formulas are getting really good at 2-day shipping.

The presumption that shoppers “trust ” Amazon or Walmart to deliver the lowest price is a flawed one. It only takes one experience to drive customers into a second browser window to check prices elsewhere. If I’m in a hurry, sure… Amazon is the easy way. But if I’ve got an extra day or so, and the price difference is big enough to make me feel stupid, and especially if that company takes PayPal, I’ll happily switch. And there are people who will stop in a Walmart store first…absent some great deal elsewhere. But they clearly have been slipping away to Dollar stores to buy items that are clearly priced lower than even the Bentonville giant.

As we’ve said many times, this past holiday season was something of a watershed. Notwithstanding genuinely unseasonably warm weather, sales were lackluster and in our Pricing Benchmark, Retail respondents genuinely were very lukewarm about their pricing practices ability to drive any kind of sustainable top- or bottom-line results.

Insanity definitions aside, retailers are smart enough to change tactics when a) it’s obvious they’re not working and b) when shareholders start demanding better results. 

But here we are, and it’s Prime Day. Last year 14% of retailers had followed Amazon’s lead and started their holiday promotions over the summer. Still, lowest prices were found the week after Christmas and overall, retailers had a pretty lousy holiday season. Margins were weak and the top line was not very strong. Sure, the weather had something to do with it…but mostly, consumers are hip to the game. Others like Kohl are playing along, running their own sales, and companies like Home Depot have been talking about “Black Friday-like deals ” since April. But it’s not clear either how good those deals are, if the savings are worth pantry-packing for, or if there might be a better way.

It’s our opinion that there is a better way, and this brings me to my final bit of gentle advice: stick to your knitting, stay close on price and work as hard as you can to be in-stock, efficient and provide great service. Prime Day comes but once a year. Retailers still have an opportunity to succeed in a post-Amazon world. Amazon’s market and customer patience are not infinite.

When I moderated a panel at the RILA Supply Chain Leadership Conference in March, the panel was asked if there was any way Amazon could be stopped. My personal reply was that back when I first became an analyst, the self-same question was being asked about Walmart. After several years of basically flat sales, even the most ardent Walmart supporter would have to say Walmart has run out the growth string in the US.

So that begs the question: Will the same thing happen to Amazon? It’s a harder question for me to answer personally, as I buy literally thousands of dollars’ worth of product from Amazon every year, vs. zero from Walmart. But I think the answer is still “Yes. ” Trust is a fragile thing, and playing the low price game is always risky. And no market is infinite.

I see the pendulum swinging. And I’m excited to see the industry re-birth itself yet again.