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Amazon’s Activities: Moving Past The First Flush Of ‘Wow’

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Friday June 16 was a seriously chaotic day for us at RSR. That was the day the Amazon.com acquisition of Whole Foods Market was announced. It was big enough news that we published our second ever “special edition ” Retail Paradox Weekly solely to give our take on the story.

We did this in between taking press calls from as far away as Norway (!!) because grocery stocks around the world took an instant beating. And of course, everyone wanted to know “what it means for retail. “

As we mentioned in our original piece, the significance of the deal is less about Whole Foods and more about Amazon going Omnichannel. In at least one retail vertical, Amazon has recognized that stores are needed for profitability and made its move. This begs the question: is this the only vertical where stores are an opportunity for Amazon? My take is a loud and definitive no.

Amazon moved on last week to introduce “Prime Wardrobe. ” Prime Wardrobe allows Prime members to try on clothes before they buy them. As The Verge described it:

“Once you select at least three Prime Wardrobe-eligible pieces from over a million clothing options, Amazon will ship your selections to you in a resealable return box with a prepaid shipping label.

After you try on the clothes, you can put the ones you don’t want back in the box and leave it at your front door — Prime Wardrobe also comes with free scheduled pickups from UPS. If you decide to keep at least three items you will get a 10 percent discount off your purchase, and if you keep five or more pieces the discount rises to 20 percent. “

Well, that’s absurdly convenient, isn’t it? It’s another “wow. ” But (as David Letterman used to ask), “Will it float? ” Will it actually be a profit-maker, or will it be yet another loss leader in Amazon’s war chest of loss leaders?

My take is that it’s an outcome of the crazy high return rates direct-to-consumer retailers have always experienced with apparel. If nothing else, not charging the customer until she decides what she really wants eliminates redundant credit card fees (process the sale and then process the return). I suppose that’s useful and it’s worth a few bucks. But is the concept scalable? Is it a money-maker? Does it have legs? I don’t think so.

Sure there’s more margin to play with in the world of apparel. We’re talking slower turns but way higher gross margin percent – especially for private label product. Is it a better use of funds than the now defunct “Style Code ” Amazon TV show? Heck yeah. That was always an idea whose idea had passed. But it still just doesn’t feel right.

I don’t think I’d be worried about this if I was an apparel retailer. I’d be bemused, but not worried. And as I mentioned in another publication, Amazon still has to deal with the “buy it for a Bar Mitzvah and then return it ” problem…in other words, what if the returned merchandise is not in pristine condition? Catalog retailers have solved for this. Amazon has a ways to go.

If I was a betting girl, I might bet that Amazon will find a terrestrial apparel retailer to buy. Nike distribution deal notwithstanding, I’m thinking of a company like Gap. Drop prices to make them more competitive, and do an Omnichannel apparel retailing thing. But that’s my fantasy. I have zero inside knowledge on any of this.

The biggest challenge in following Amazon is separating the PR noise from the serious business decisions. The whole drone delivery thing was pretty easy for me: PR noise. Buying Whole Foods? Even though Whole Foods only holds 1% of the US grocery market, it’s still a big deal because it’s such a dramatic departure for Amazon. Amazon Go (cashierless checkout)? Meh. Noise. There are realities of shrink that make that an unlikely proposition.

And now this. Prime Wardrobe? I just don’t think so. Once a customer knows the fit of a brand, then it’s fine to buy online. But Prime Wardrobe is an invitation to add cost for Amazon. One thing I’m pretty sure of… other retailers do not need to follow suit.

If I’m wrong, so be it, but that’s the way it feels. A short-term solution to a long-term problem. And another week of headlines for a company whose stock is already over $1,000.

Newsletter Articles June 27, 2017
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